Yeah, I started, and once I start I really don't know how to stop doing mock drafts, so I'm gonna just keep cranking these out until June.
#15, New York Knicks (via DAL), Kel’el Ware, C, Freshman, Oregon
7’0”, 225lbs, NA wingspan
The Good: Ware’s combination of size and skill could propel him into the lottery by year’s end, depending both on his production at Oregon and which teams of which needs fall in the lottery. Had 18 points and 9 rebounds vs a better UConn in a loss, showed flashes of rebounding ability and shooting touch both in the paint and out to three-point range. Shooting touch was also on display early vs. Montana State. Has no fear facing the basket on the catch, shooting will likely continue to improve at the professional level. Looks to have a plus wingspan and decent shot blocking instincts. Shooting comes in tandem with good free throw production (80% in U18 Americas Championship, 70% thus far at Oregon). Springy, good second jump that should translate to good offensive rebounding chances created, be they tap-outs or snagged by him. When his back is to the basket, he has a few moves he has no problem throwing at his defender, often ending with soft hooks or things similar, with good production. Worst case scenario is a solid rim runner with length.
The Bad: Frame immediately draws concern, weight is distributed enough that he appears to be pretty slight, fairly easily pushed around by heavier players. Shooting touch is good, but if he’s going to continue to be that kind of player in the NBA, it will likely need to improve still. In tandem with that, playmaking leaves some to be desired and if he’s going to be a pick-and-fade target, he will need to be able to attack a closeout with tighter dribble moves than have been on display thus far. Sometimes he looks as though he’s getting the numbers he’s getting are because of his athleticism, and less because he’s the hardest worker on the court. On defense, this can lead to mental lapses where he’s bailed out by his length or hops, and on offense it can just lead to poor post touches and not fully-realized possessions. If motor is improved, he could move up in the first round into the lottery.
The Situation: With both Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson's futures in question, the Knicks add the best center available, who should be able to step in alongside guys like Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims as a rotational big who should be good for some hustle points, 5-8 rebounds, and a block. Best case scenario, the jump shot develops quickly and the Knicks can afford to let Randle walk in favor of Obi Toppin and their new stretch big.
#16, Utah Jazz (via PHI): Terquavion Smith, G, Sophomore, North Carolina State
6’3”, 165lbs, 6’7”wingspan
The Good: Super crafty multi-level scorer from the guard spot. Tight handle and strong displayed shooting ability. Despite being a second-year college player, he will still be on the younger side of all prospects by the time June comes. Long arms that he uses to his advantage on both ends of the floor, rising up for stop-and-pop jumpers in transition and using his instincts to read passing lanes. Shooting projects to continue at the next level. Enjoys going in towards the rim and finishing with tough layups and a solid floater package. Despite being a natural scorer, is willing to make plays for his teammates and has a good feel for timing. Averaged 16.3ppg a year ago for NC State, on 37% from three. Takes no issue with going in looking for contact despite his small frame. As a lower-ranked player in high school, Smith has been playing with a chip on his shoulder for a long time and will undoubtedly bring that.
The Bad: Will undoubtedly be one of the lightest players at the combine when the time comes, and this can translate to defensive issues as well as risk for potential injury. Often settles for poor shots in the paint, even if he completes a higher percentage of them than one would think. Like a handful of others in this draft, will certainly bring questions of what position he will actually play at the next level. At 6’3”-6’4”, and especially with his weight, he’s undersized for an NBA two, even if his scoring ability would suggest that that’s where he fits best. If he doesn’t develop further playmaking abilities and cements himself as a one, his ceiling may only be that of a second-unit volume scorer for a team.
The Situation: As Utah continues to supersede their expectations, it appears that they'll find themselves as a mid-first round team as opposed to the high-lottery many figured them to be. With Smith, they find Collin Sexton a potential future running mate and more or less a Jordan Clarkson clone, with may allow them to let him go via trade midseason or over the summer.
#17, Chicago Bulls (via POR), Kris Murray, F, Junior, Iowa
6’8”, 220lbs, 6’11”wingspan
The Good: Twin brother of Sacramento Kings rookie Keegan, his brother’s success so far in his career may give teams a higher opinion of him. Being an older prospect means that he is likely fairly visible as what he will be at the next level, but that's certainly not a negative. Recently poured in 30 points without free throws against Omaha, and a 31 point, 20 rebound performance against Georgia State, showing off his versatility thus far. May not be the back to the basket scorer his brother is, but has more visible three-and-D readiness than Keegan. Being left-handed also creates a degree of difficulty for his defender, especially as he develops as a shot creator. Similar build to his brother, and has the ability to use his length to work over the top of his defender. Will be 23 on draft night, but this points more towards his direct readiness to play in Game One of ‘23-’24 . Would be a good target for a mid-first round team looking for bench help to deepen a playoff run.
The Bad: Lower ceiling than most prospects due to his age, and may be caught in a perpetual state of comparison to Keegan. Not an explosive vertical athlete some others at his position this draft, nor does he have elite lateral quickness; defensive strengths come largely from IQ, length, and switchability. Not elite at any one thing, and sometimes his shooting becomes streaky, which can be cause for concern. Not especially physically strong, getting to maybe 235 pounds would be a good idea if he’s to be a solid four or player in that dunker spot, and shedding to maybe 210 or 205 if he’s going to be cemented as a three.
The Situation: With the Trail Blazers' lottery protected first round pick this season, Chicago finds themselves with a chance to take a player who can help further their chances at a title in the Zach Lavine era immediately. Around players like Ayo Dosunmu, Patrick Williams, and Dalen Terry, Murray can slide in as a second unit scoring option with the chance to provide serviceable starter minutes in the event of DeRozan load management or a Williams injury.
#18, Atlanta Hawks, Jett Howard, G/F, Freshman, Michigan
6’8”, 215lbs, 6’9”wingspan
The Good: Great size for an offensive-minded wing. Natural scorer, but willing playmaker on a well-rounded Michigan team under father and NBA legend Juwan. Really good shooting stroke and good lift on the jump shot, and at his size, should continue to develop into a strong 3-and-D prospect, with a ceiling of strong shot creating abilities. Doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be successful, has a good feel for running around screens and getting himself open. Very good footwork when attacking closeouts, and can turn his back to his defender and throw a couple nifty moves at them on his way to the rim. Despite lacking elite foot speed, likes to push the tempo if he gets the ball in the backcourt, be it for himself or his teammates. Plus wing defender in one-on-one scenarios and has a good feel for schemes and how he fits within them at the wing spot. Could certainly become a mid-first round steal for the right team.
The Bad: Doesn’t have overwhelming length for his height, which could lead to mismatches at the next level and getting shot over by longer offensive players. Not a great athlete in a foot speed or leaping ability sense. Some look at these and his “good pace” as just being a bit slow and unathletic, despite pedigree and visible frame. Hasn’t shown to be a good rebounder at this point in his career, despite height. Has shown moments of having a pretty loose handle, but that should only be cause for concern if it continues at Michigan, and even then, he likely won’t be a primary play initiator.
The Situation: Atlanta continues to bolster their bench firepower behind their high-octane first unit. Behind guys like Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter, Howard has the chance to further develop into a strong wing defender, and alongside young players like Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, and Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta could further cement themselves as a must-watch team.
#19, Memphis Grizzlies, Maxwell Lewis, G, Sophomore, Pepperdine
6’7”, 190lbs, 7’2”wingspan
The Good: Another prototypical modern wing prospect, Lewis’ non-traditional path to the league will end this year, as he’s used an explosive start to the NCAA season to catch the attention of front offices leaguewide. Quick like a two, he can likely slide into either wing spot at the next level due to length and athleticism. Has the ability to turn his back to his defender and finish over the top with little jumpers or post moves. Good lift on his jump shot that negates low release. If he develops his strength, he could turn into a very solid 1-4 defender due to his wingspan. In playing at Pepperdine, often has the ball in his hands and an ultimate green light, but isn’t married to taking every attempt if his teammates have a better one. Length translates to deflections, will likely make early money in the NBA as a lane-jumper and highlight generator. With the right staff, he should develop into a strong shooter. Generally a good rebounder, largely due to his length.
The Bad: As can be the case with mid-major talent of this caliber, Lewis’ shot selection is the first thing many people point to as a question mark about his game. Because of some of the defensive schemes that he sees, he’s forced into taking bad shots and does so. Sometimes turns down better looks for tougher shots, which is causation for pause, even if the shots go down. Shot release is objectively low, and he can get streaky sometimes. His wingspan makes you think that a higher release is not only possible, but essential if he wants to develop into a lights-out shooter at the next level. Can turn the ball over a lot, assist to turnover ratio isn’t necessarily what you like to see, though he’s sharing the ball better thus far than he did as a freshman.
The Situation: Memphis adds another shot of youth to their wing scoring here, especially as they know that Danny Green won't play forever, despite his best attempts of late. If Lewis develops, he can take some of the Jon Konchar minutes and alongside guys like Ziaire Williams and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies further their depth behind the heavy hitting of Ja Morant.
#20, Los Angeles Lakers (via NOP), Dillon Mitchell, F, Freshman, Texas
6’8”, 205lbs, NA wingspan (around 7’1”)
The Good: One of the higher ceilings of any prospect this year, Mitchell provides a team with a legitimate super athlete with a decent-looking left handed shooting stroke and the potential to be an impactful defender Game One. Not a dissimilar prospect to Overtime Elite’s Thompson twins, Mitchell loves to use his length to disrupt passing lanes and finish with wild dunks on the other end. In further similar fashion to the Thompsons, he’s not a shooting threat at this point in his career, but his free throw stroke and mechanics look workable at best, so it’s reasonable to think that he’ll develop into something serviceable. He’s good at finishing through contact and is a strong offensive rebounder for his height, so if he fills out his frame as he grows older, there’s a good chance he sees minutes as a small-ball four, especially as that position becomes more of a “dunker’s spot”. This also may be exacerbated by his lack of shooting so far, though developing that skill could make him one of the more versatile prospects in the whole draft, and send him up draft boards. Willing passer, though maybe not what many would consider to be a "natural playmaker". Vocal leader who enjoys being “the guy” if called upon.
The Bad: As mentioned, the lack of shooting is certainly a point of concern at this point, but with his intangible gifts, may not be enough of a hindrance at the professional level. Obviously would change his value, but for a team in the mid-to-late first round, a mega athlete with a ceiling is the type of player you swing on. Due to his left-handedness, sometimes he can make himself only available on that side of the floor and can cut off his potential effectiveness. However, he moves well enough without the ball and likely won’t be a play initiator as a pro, so this may not be an issue. Could be a situation where a team takes a swing on an unrefined athlete and ends up with either a generational player due to ceiling, or a one-note leaper who will max out as a “Derrick Jones Jr.”
The Situation: The Lakers are firmly in a "best player available" scenario when it comes to this draft, and Mitchell is an intriguing enough option for Pelinka and Co. to snag, should they find him here. While it's true they may rather have their own pick, and potentially Villanova's Cam Whitmore (or better), Mitchell won't fall any further than this unless his Texas season really falls apart.
#21, New York Knicks (via WAS), Emoni Bates, F, Sophomore, Eastern Michigan
6’9”, 190lbs, 6’7.5”wingspan
The Good: Refined three-level scorer who’s spent much of his young career in the public eye and under major scrutiny. After a questionable freshman season at Memphis alongside Jalen Duren, he transferred to Eastern Michigan and has been off to a strong start to his sophomore year. Caught early attention after a thirty point explosion in his debut vs. a good Michigan team. He’s a legit offensive talent, and in the early parts of his NBA career, if given minutes, he should be able to provide a team with some bench scoring from the wing slot, especially in height mismatches against smaller twos and threes. He has a high basketball IQ, and understands what’s required when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands. Good handle for his height, and has a nice smoothness to his athleticism, even if he isn’t going to leap over you. Better rebounder than one would think, when looking at his frame and lack of length. He’s also very young compared to other prospects, which could make a forward-thinking team more likely to take a swing on him. Some teams may see him as an oversized two, which could make him a unique offensive mismatch in the second group.
The Bad: Once viewed as a generational talent whose steam has cooled off tremendously, Bates’ very public presence has been under the microscope. In having the ultimate green light in high school and AAU (playing for his father), this has translated to some questionable shot selection at the next level. Forces the issue, sometimes with positive results, but that’s rarely something that translates. Frame suggests injury, and he missed time last year at Memphis due to a combination of injuries. Unsure of how his green light and the changes that will come with being a rookie will affect him, very expressive and can “check out” on occasion. Fairly undisciplined on defense, which can be an issue paired with his slight frame. Will need to pack on some fairly significant weight if he wants to not get “picked on” on the defensive side of the ball. Was involved in some fairly serious off the court issues this summer, though he was found to have not been as invovled as some thought.
The Situation: After solidifying a bit of height earlier in the first round, the Knicks can afford to take a flier on a player like Bates to bolster their wing scoring. While he may not be the most "Thibodeau-esque" player available, as the Knicks get younger, Bates should provide them with another wing scoring option around R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, Immanuel Quickley, and Obi Toppin.
#22, Sacramento Kings, Dereck Lively, C, Freshman, Duke
7’2”, 225lbs, 7’8”wingspan
The Good: Duke’s top recruit in one of their top classes in recent memory, the giant Lively passes the eye test every time, even if his play thus far at Duke has been less than stellar. Like his teammate Dariq Whitehead, he’s been battling injuries since before the season got underway, and has been on a similar minutes restriction. He’s a physical specimen, with long arms and huge hands to pair with his stature. When he’s playing, he’s an incredibly springy 7’2”, which makes him a defensive nightmare and dunking threat at every juncture. Smart player with pedigree (mother played at Penn State, overseas, and spent time coaching). Has improved his touch near the rim and away from it, stretching his range out to the three point line before departing high school. Should this continue, he could develop into an intriguing offensive talent that’s available in the mid-to-late first round.
The Bad: Has not been elite at Duke thus far, especially considering hype surrounding both him and his team heading into the NCAA season this year. When he’s played, it’s been sort of mediocre, with fairly weak scoring and rebounding numbers so far. Should be a better rebounder for his height and wingspan, largely due to his frame, which will need to solidify if he wants regular NBA minutes. Hasn’t shown the shooting touch at the collegiate level thus far that he displayed as a younger player. Sometimes gets picked on as a perimeter defender when called upon to switch, which makes you wonder what he will be relegated to as an NBA player.
The Situation: While he may not be the player his frontcourt mate Filipowski is, Lively will likely improve throughout his campaign at Duke, and should he do so at the level many expect, he may not even be available this late. In Sacramento, his athleticism allows that team to continue their league-shattering pace of play, and presents them as a lob threat. On the other side of the ball, he should use his instincts and frame to solidify the interior for a team that's struggled with that for a long time. They should be careful not to fall into a Willie Cauley-Stein looking trap, but that's a pick much less offensive at #22 as opposed to #6.
#23, Los Angeles Clippers, Kyle Filipowski, C, Freshman, Duke
7’0”, 230lbs, NA wingspan
The Good: Filipowski’s play has outshined fellow freshman Dereck Lively so far in Duke’s young season, with flashes of tremendous offensive skill at multiple places on the floor. Another in a loaded Blue Devil freshman class, with fellow first rounders like Dariq Whitehead and Lively, and other players who could easily get NBA contracts, like Jeremy Roach, Mark Mitchell, and Tyrese Proctor. What you get with Filipowski is a smooth scorer from multiple spots at a legit seven feet. Strong interior presence that translates to good rebounding skills, and he shows better playmaking skills at his size than one would guess. Nice touch around the rim with both hands, and a good free throw shooter. Better shooter from three point range in high school than he’s been so far at Duke, but his willingness to shoot and the flashes that have been shown definitely encourage promise.
The Bad: He’s not going to blow you away with his athleticism, nor is he so long that he can affect every defensive possession like you may hope other centers would, but has a solid understanding of concepts and his positioning within. Would be worth developing a stronger faceup game when he can’t create space with his size or shoot over his defender. Adding a couple strong moves with one or two dribbles could change the entire outlook of his offensive skill set, especially as he’s not going to ever be someone to dominate you with his sprinting or leaping. The lack of production as a jump shooter so far isn’t necessarily cause for concern, but should some of the trends like 1-6 3PM continue (in Duke’s lone loss thus far, to Kansas), he may be a more limited offensive player than we thought.
The Situation: The argument could be made for either Duke giant at this point in the draft, especially with teams like Sacramento and the Clippers being in this area, both of whom could use a bit more size. Lively's defensive potential and length as a lob threat make him more exciting for the Kings, but the Clippers are glad to get arguably the better of the two bigs, and someone who can step in behind Ivica Zubac and bring energy and a bit of post scoring.
#24, Phoenix Suns, Trevon Brazile, F/C, Sophomore, Arkansas
6’10”, 210lbs, 7’0”wingspan
The Good: High-energy, long forward who transferred to Arkansas after a solid freshman season at Missouri (7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2 blocks in about 20 minutes of play). Nice combination of size and athleticism, with the framework in place to be a solid shooter at the next level. Posted a 21 point, 12 rebound double-double off the bench vs North Dakota State early on. Good shooting stroke, high release to pair with height. Gifted athlete with a good feel for positioning in the pick and roll and as a lob threat. Pretty smooth off the bounce when attacking closeouts. Not the most elite athlete when it comes to first step explosiveness, but is smooth and patient in his moves. Wide shoulders suggest potential ability to put on weight in the future. Rising up draft boards already, and may do so even further as the season progresses, depending on further versatility displayed throughout the year.
The Bad: Sometimes a little bit passive on the offensive end; doesn’t really understand how dominant he can be when given the chance to. Slight, can get pushed around in the paint, and is a bit slow for a three right now, will need to do a bit of work to define what he is at the next level. Not a great rebounder despite height and length, largely due to his slender nature. Seems to have a level of playmaking that’s yet to be unlocked. If he is able to be a primary ball-handler in a pick-and-roll scenario, and make reads around the floor over the top of his defender at 6’10”, no chance he’s still available in this slot.
The Situation: While "better" prospects may be available here, the Suns are looking to add a little bit of length off their bench, and Brazile offers a high ceiling to pair with their other young players. He could spell anyone from Mikal Bridges, to Cam Johnson or even Deandre Ayton in certain groups. He could develop either into a frontcourt menace alongside the latter, or as a spry "small forward" who creates a ton of issues for defenders in the second unit.
#25, Charlotte Hornets (via DEN), Rayan Rupert, G/F, 2004, New Zealand Breakers (NZ)
6’6”, 195lbs, 7’3” wingspan
The Good: The first thing you notice with French prospect Rupert is the unreal length for a wing player. His +9 wingspan is borderline unheard of, especially as a non-center. This will translate to defensive effectiveness at the next level, and should cement him as a first round pick. Isn’t hindered by his insane wingspan when it comes to shooting the ball, as he’s willing to take and make threes at whatever clip is called upon. Isn’t the most efficient offensive talent, but just like his NBL predecessor Ousmane Dieng, this likely will not affect his stock when it comes to draft time. The length and athleticism, as well as his youth and the upside that comes with a prospect like this will sell teams at the end of the day. Good feel for where to be without the ball, likely due to his international play. Developing as a playmaker in the pick-and-roll, which would be an elite addition to his game, especially considering his wingspan. Year one, he will be able to step in as a disruptive wing defender with a developing jump shot that has a very good framework.
The Bad: He’s pretty raw, and doesn’t always have the best feel for what’s the right shot in a halfcourt set. Dips the ball pretty low to start his jump shot, and for it to be truly effective at the next level, he’s going to have to speed up the entire process, especially as he’ll be called upon to catch and shoot early on much more than he will to create his own shot. For his length, he’s not a great rebounder, and should develop into one if he wants to be a successful two-way wing, especially considering his monster wingspan. Should further develop as a playmaker from that slot as well. Can be slightly undisciplined on defense; often can get bailed out by his length and athleticism.
The Situation: After using their lottery pick to select a dynamic, ready made scorer in Smith Jr., the Hornets use their second first rounder to take a project that pairs well with some of their other players of that nature. As Gordon Hayward moves further into the twilight and Kelly Oubre takes the majority of those minutes, and with the uncertainty of Miles Bridges, Rupert gives Charlotte a future project who may give them more help than they expect.
#26, Indiana Pacers, JJ Starling, G, Freshman, Notre Dame
6’4”, 200lbs, 6’9”wingspan
The Good: What you get with Starling is obvious, a multi-level scorer from either guard slot. He’s been compared to his predecessor of last year, Blake Wesley, who was drafted by the Spurs at 25th overall last season. He’s an elite shooter, has no issue getting to his spots, and plays bigger than his listed 6’4”. He shows flashes of being a strong playmaker on occasion, but as has been the case with many other players in this draft, Starling does find himself with a bit of a positional question as an NBA player. Nice tight handle and good elevation on his jumper, allows him to work into tight spaces and get his shot off over a lot of different defenders and schemes. Good rebounder for his size, and likes to push the pace both on his own and with his teammates.
The Bad: As mentioned, there’s a question about what position Starling will play at the next level, but scorers always find a way to score, and we’ve seen plenty of undersized combo guards picked at slots like this who develop into plug and play scorers on NBA rosters. He’s not as good of a defender as you’d hope, especially considering the +5 wingspan, nor is he an overwhelming athlete, but the tools are in place to where he could certainly develop into one. If his playmaking and defense develop, and he cements himself as the Fighting Irish’s lead guard and their number one option, he should be a lock for the first round.
The Situation: It's worth noting that this is the first of three Indiana Pacers picks in the final five selections of the first round, which they may try to turn into a top five or higher pick, but should they choose to stay put and build their roster around Haliburton, Duarte, and Ben Mathurin, Starling provides them with a microwave option off the bench who can provide scoring from multiple levels on the floor.
#27, Utah Jazz, Coleman Hawkins, F/C, Junior, Illinois
6’10”, 225lbs, 7’1”wingspan
The Good: Older prospect rising up boards despite age, due to increased offensive production, especially as a jump shooter. Recently displayed his full skillset against Syracuse, posting a 15/10/10 triple double and picking apart their patented zone. Lanky frame and surprisingly quick first step could make for a tricky offensive cover if he improves his handle. Better shooter than one would guess, with nice form and elevation off the catch. Extremely willing passer with good version, both in a high-post setting or off the bounce. Good instincts when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, knows how to relocate for a better shot or to make himself available for a pass. Doesn’t dally with the ball in his hands, looks to either make a play for himself or others immediately. Smooth, fluid athlete, appears to be pretty comfortable in his own body. Nice feel for defensive rotations and where he has to be in relation to the driving offensive player. Averaging 1.5 steals and 1 block so far this season. Larger role offensively this season for Illinois will likely lead to production numbers that will bump him into the first round.
The Bad: Junior in college who’s yet to string together a real stretch of dominant offensive performances and has had stats that haven’t blown anyone away thus far in his career at Illinois. Increased usage this year has translated to increased turnover numbers, which is exacerbated by his still-developing handle. Still kind of slight, could get pushed around on the block if put in a traditional big role, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Wingspan of only +3, you’d like to see that a little longer, with the shot blocking numbers to match. Situationally cornered a little bit, unknown ceiling with his age. May age out of being a big-time offensive player on the wrong roster, and with limited defensive measurables, fit could be unknown as a professional.
The Situation: Utah has cooled off record-wise a bit, and after using their earlier first round pick on an offensive talent like NC State's Smith or a similar shot-creating type, Hawkins provides them with a bit of offensive punch off the bench to pair with guys like Ochai Agbaji and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. In a high-post big role, he'll allow some of the shooters to run around the three point line and make themselves available, as well as having the natural ability to *seemingly* pour in 8-10 points.
#28, Indiana Pacers (via CLE), Jalen Wilson, F, Junior, Kansas
6’8”, 225lbs, 6’8” wingspan
The Good: The primary offensive talent on the defending national champions, Wilson has come out firing this season, setting a career high with 33 points against Southern Utah, and 25 points and 11 rebounds against a long Duke frontcourt in a big win. Not unlike his former running mate and 2022 lottery pick, Ochai Agbaji, Wilson likes to go at his defender from multiple levels, using his frame to muscle into the paint, or use a soft touch to shoot over a smaller defender. Big wing with a good motor, good rebounder with no problem finishing above the rim. As an older prospect, his fairly defined position makes him a visible plug-and-play option for a team who could use some wing bolstering. Pretty good ball handler with a knack for making plays for others, too. When his jump shots are falling, he’s as good of a shooter as there is in college basketball, and him and teammate Gradey Dick make for a pretty lethal wing combo in Lawrence.
The Bad: Not unlike other older prospects, the question of the team on which Wilson finds himself could have a lot to do with his early-career production. Handle isn’t elite, despite above-average playmaking skills. Sometimes can get baited into wild play and turn the ball over. Good shooter, but can be streaky and can try to shoot his way out of slumps, sometimes to no avail. Suffered an ankle injury that kept him sidelined for an extended period of time, and without elite lateral quickness anyway, the question of how he’ll stay in front of elite perimeter offensive players as a pro is worth asking. Despite being a good shooter, with flashes of abilities beyond that, his free throw percentage is less than what you’d hope. His best full season mark came last year, at 72.2%, though he is currently on pace to usurp that.
The Situation: The second of Indiana's trio of picks, and after they added some shot creation in Notre Dame's Starling, Wilson brings another long wing to Indiana and their unexpectedly quickening rebuild. The forward minutes are largely distributed to rookie Ben Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Chris Duarte, Terry Taylor, and what's left of James Johnson. Wilson can step into this roster and provide further offensive lift as a big wing or small four and potentially allow the Pacers to shed some contracts.
#29, Houston Rockets (via MIL), Marcus Sasser, G, Senior, Houston
6’2”, 195lbs, 6’7 wingspan
The Good: The lead guard on the current (11.30.22) #1 team in the country, Sasser’s senior campaign is off to a rolicking start. He’s using his leadership and scoring ability to help propel this, but also making a lot of plays for his teammates. In a recent rout of Norfolk State, Sasser poured in 25 points, to go with four assists, often passing up a shot of his own for a better one for a teammate. Fearless offensive player, no problem going at longer or taller defenders. His long arms allow him to be disruptive beyond his height on the defensive end, and offensively, he’s a strong shooter off the dribble, and his handle is very tight. He could firmly cement himself as a first round talent if Houston continues their success going forward.
The Bad: What will likely keep Sasser out of the first round is his age, as he’s a senior who will be over 22.5 by the time the draft comes in June. As the league gets younger and more athletic, teams are hesitant to take more developed, “obvious” prospects, as they feel they can develop them further at the professional level from a younger age. He is not known for his shot selection abilities, often called upon to take and make big shots that aren’t necessarily “good”. Beyond his age, he’s a bit slight, at MAYBE 6’2”, and this can translate to rebounding issues. His wingspan makes up for this, but there’s no doubt he may get targeted early in his career. He’s displayed good vision at this point this season, but plays more like a shooting guard, which could be detrimental as he’s entering the league. For a player like this, the situation could mean everything. He doesn’t really have the timetable to go to a rebuilding team and spend 2-3 years on the bench, but could come in and be an offensive spark and provide improved playmaking for a contending team.
The Situation: While Sasser to Houston may seem to go against the nature of his age and the state the Rockets find themselves in, lucking into Wembanyama at the number one slot accelerates their entire timeline. With the keys to the offense in a "true" point guard role, Sasser should keep this youth movement running at their frenetic pace, and allow for further shot creation in their high octane setup.
#30, Indiana Pacers (via BOS), Leonard Miller, F, 2003, G League Ignite (USA)
6’10”, 210lbs, 7’2”wingspan
The Good: Long, super raw Canadian prospect with a ton of youth and moldability. Garnered interest as an even more raw prospect last year leading up to the ‘22 draft, Miller chose to default and spend a year in the Ignite system, which is sure to benefit him further as the year continues to go by. Has the ability to be a unique offensive talent with some mechanical tweaks. A lefty inclined to play more near the perimeter, even with his measurables, he’s had flashes of playmaking ability and shooting that give you hope. Poured in 16 points and nine rebounds against Webanyama’s Metropolitans 92. Has the confidence to get a rebound and press the ball ahead in transition, and once he improves his ball-handling, he could develop into a rare transition threat. Defensively, his wingspan and wide shoulders make him appear bigger than his listed 6’10”, 210. Shows flashes of shot creation that can be eye-opening, even if they’re a bit more “few and far between”. Length, upside, and potential will sell an improving team on Miller’s services.
The Bad: Super raw, just as high of a chance of him bottoming out as becoming a late-first round steal. Very unclear what he will be at the next level, whether that’s a stretch five or a bruising small forward, or what. Jump shot mechanics leave a tremendous amount to be desired, but he has no hesitation in shooting them. In the right setup, he could be trained into a passable pick-and-fade threat, but at this point he doesn’t look like one. Not a great ball-handler, but again, has the willingness to take the ball off the rim and take it end-to-end. Still an element of learning the game that’s evident when you watch him play. Even if he doesn’t become a jump shooter at the next level, he’s going to need to improve his free throw shooting to earn minutes as a professional.
The Situation: With the last pick of the first round, and after picking a couple of strong offensive talents, the Pacers allow themselves to take a flyer on Miller, who at minimum should be able to come in and fly around as a rim runner. From there, they could develop him through their system as a long forward to pair with Myles Turner and their pile of guards.
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