Notes: Draft order determined by basketball.realgm.com draft order simulator and NBA records as of 12/17/22.
Players' stats and standout games are as of 12/17/22.
#1, Detroit Pistons, Victor Wembanyama: F/C, 2004, Metropolitans 92 (FRA)
7’4”, 229lbs, 8’0”wingspan
23.6ppg, 9.4rpg, 2.8bpg, 52% FG
Standout Game: 36 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 blocks vs. G League Ignite
The Good: As consensus of a #1 as there has maybe ever been in league history, “Wemby” offers a previously unseen combination of size and skill that breaks the internet every time it’s posted. His shooting, ball handling and touch around the rim mixed with his league-record wingspan and monstrous height should strike fear into opponents current and future. The shooting ability is indiscriminate between being created on his own, or on the receiving end of a pass. He has defensive instincts that should be illegal to pair with his frame, which should translate to elite-level shot blocking at the next level. When he attacks from the wing, he truly looks as though he is a more compact player, until he rises up into an unblockable jump shot, flips in an acrobatic layup, or just dunks on the lowest man in the paint. Just watch him, you'll see.
The Bad: In having never seen anything like this before, it’s hard to pinpoint what it is about Wembanyama that could be seen as a downside, given the current state of the NBA, especially on the offensive side of the ball. When you watch him play, there’s no doubt that his frame could potentially suggest injury. He’s a bit hunched as you work your way up his massive spine, so should he come across a physically imposing big like Joel Embiid, that could result in an innocent looking fall turning into something beyond that. On occasion, this also can translate to him settling for “bad” shots based on the physicality of his defender. Depending on what schemes are thrown at him, if he’s matched up against a “big wing” who’s of quicker foot speed off the dribble; he’s not completely un-susceptible to being driven past. He doesn’t have elite foot speed, but it’s certainly good enough, and should that come with being around professional-level training staff, the league could be in serious trouble.
The Situation: After shutting down star guard Cade Cunningham for the season recently, Detroit sends themselves hurtling towards the bottom of the standings and are rewarded with the generational French talent. Alongside Cunningham and last year's lottery pick, Jaden Ivey, Detroit cements themselves as a Central division threat immediately.
#2, Orlando Magic, Scoot Henderson: G, 2004, G League Ignite (USA)
6’3”, 195lbs, 6’9”wingspan
21ppg, 4.5rpg, 5.8apg, 48% FG
Standout Game: 27 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals vs. Oklahoma City Blue
The Good: A player who many would consider to be a #1 overall talent in many other drafts not including players like Wembanyama, Henderson should be able to take the keys to a struggling franchise and hop in the proverbial driver’s seat from a lead guard spot. He notably matched up with Wemby’s Mets 92 and came away with 28 points and 9 rebounds in a close loss. He doesn’t blow you away with his standing height, but his wingspan and elite athleticism suggest that there shouldn’t be any issues sliding into a starting guard spot in the NBA. Without making direct comparisons, there are certainly shades of players like Rose, Lillard, and Morant present when you watch the lightning-quick G League product. He has very strong touch in the paint and around the rim, and has no problem converting on stop and pop jumpers, either in the half court or in transition. He’ll likely be an above-average rebounder, despite his stature, due to his instincts and his bulldog-esque nature. His broad shoulders allow him to take up space under the rim and come away with boards of both types. His change of pace is already extremely elite, and he finished around Wembanyama on multiple occasions.
The Bad: He’s not a great three point shooter by percentage at this point in his career, and his 17.4% last season should catch some attention, but the sample size was relatively small (2.1 attempts per game). In the short G League season thus far, his percentage has ballooned into the mid-forties, on nearly three attempts per contest. Given his midrange shooting and free throw percentage, it would be extremely unlikely for Henderson to go his entire career as a “bad” three point shooter. He’s not disciplined on defense in a way you might want, but he’s still tremendously young despite this being his second campaign with the Ignite, so it would be safe to guess that with the right coach at the next level, he’ll develop into a strong guard defender.
The Situation: After striking gold with Paolo Banchero in 2022, the Magic use this year's #2 pick to select a player who arguably fits their current needs better than the generational Wembanyama. As the point guard of the future, Henderson provides Orlando with an engine and steadying presence around their abundance of size.
#3, Houston Rockets, Amen Thompson, G, 2003, City Reapers, Overtime Elite (USA)
6’7”, 200lbs, 6’9”wingspan
16.9ppg, 5.6rpg, 5.8apg, 1.9spg
Standout Game: 23 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 10-14 FT (24 minutes) vs. Cold Hearts (OTE)
The Good: Rounding out the top three is Thompson, another extremely captivating prospect, purely from a “what are we looking at here” perspective. Playing in the Overtime Elite league, alongside his twin brother Ausar and other well-known prospects, he served largely as a jumbo-sized lead guard. He’s shifty beyond what you’d think someone at his size should be, especially compared to other NBA guards, but the quickness is legit. He’s an incredible vertical athlete, and jumps at any chance to show that off, either in the half court or in transition. When his decision making is on point, he can be a tremendous drive-and-kick initiator and threat. The quickness and verticality hold hands in making him a very good interior finisher, regardless of the obstacles in his way. His athleticism kicks up his natural motor, as well, and his wingspan (which may be beyond what’s listed) make him to be a very good defender, if not the absolute ball-stopper his brother is.
The Bad: As is often the case with players like Thompson, the over-the-top athletic types, sometimes the decision making can become questionable and he can fall into the “wild” category a bit. The largest thing to point at from a development perspective is his shooting, as Thompson has not proven to be a great shooter from any range at this point in his young career. This could prove to be concerning down the line, but there’s enough good with his game that in the right situation with the right shooting coach on the respective staff of where he ends, he could develop into a very well-rounded offensive player with elite athleticism and solid defensive instincts. Depending on the situation he finds himself in, and which teams end up in the lottery, he may not be considered a “point guard” as much as a cagey, athletic wing, and depending on those lottery teams, that could bump him all the way up to superseding Henderson, or he could find himself further down the top ten.
The Situation: After Thompson has begun to quell worries about his jump shot thus far, alongside his brother Ausar, he solidifies himself as yet another ludicrously athletic hybrid guard/forward in Houston. With Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, Jr., as well as players like Kevin Porter, Jr., and Josh Christopher, Houston continues to make their case as a must-watch team in 2023 and beyond.
#4, Charlotte Hornets, Nick Smith Jr., G, Freshman, Arkansas
6’5”, 185lbs, 6’9”wingspan
14.8ppg, 2rpg, 2.3apg, 43% FG
Standout Game: 22 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists vs. UNC-Greensboro
The Good: Recently returning from a knee injury that kept him sidelined for the first part of the season, the Arkansas combo guard seems to have hardly missed a beat. In the three games where he's played reasonable minutes, he's topped fifteen points each time, and topped twenty, twice. He’s an elite scorer from multiple places on the floor, and while his frame hasn’t turned him into a great defender, packing on some muscle could make him beyond serviceable. The jump shot certainly makes GM’s the most excited, as he’s shown the ability to create and rise up in multiple situations, both from midrange and from three. While he isn’t the explosive athlete that Henderson or his teammate Black are, his pace of play suggests basketball IQ beyond his years. In a lead guard spot, he’s often able to peer over his defenders to make the right play in a pick-and-roll scenario, even if he would rather create his own shot. As an off-guard, his jump shooting will translate immediately, and as he gets stronger, he should become more used to attacking closeouts and contact. That unique ability to be solid in both guard spots, mixed with an undeniable alpha dog mentality, makes Smith Jr. a very solid selection for any team in the 4-8 range.
The Bad: The elephant in the room is of course Smith’s knee. While he seems to have returned to form for the Razorbacks, there will likely be questions about it throughout the pre-draft process, especially considering his wiry frame. He doesn’t have the elite athleticism you maybe want from a generational guard like Henderson, but his length makes up for this a bit. There’s a timeline where he potentially becomes caught in a sort of guard purgatory, where he’s a bit slow to be a one, but too small to be a two, so you want to think that he’ll put some weight on his frame by the time he gets to the pros to negate this “issue”. He’s not a natural playmaker, but shows flashes of vision that are more than enough to garner excitement.
The Situation: Alongside LaMelo Ball, Smith Jr. should be able to step in and score in a variety of manners soon after his career begins. He's solidified himself enough as a scoring guard to eliminate redundancy comparisons between the two top five picks.
Editor's Note: I promised myself I wouldn't do too many of these, but Smith recently (12.22.22) went down with the same injury and was described as "out indefinitely" by coach Eric Mussleman. I still think he'll fall here, provided this isn't seson-ending. This also has a chance to solidify the next pick.
#5, San Antonio Spurs, Anthony Black, G, Freshman, Arkansas
6’7”, 185lbs, NA wingspan (around 7’0”)
12.6ppg, 5.3rpg, 3.7apg, 53% FG
Standout Game: 26 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists vs. Creighton
The Good: In the absence of his Razorback backcourt running mate, Black had a chance to shine in the early going of this NCAA season, including a pair of back to back 26 point performances in the Maui Invitational Tournament. Since Smith Jr's return, he's offered up several high-level supporting performances on an offensively loaded team. He provides teams with a unique oversized playmaker who’s most comfortable at the lead guard spot, despite his height. His first instinct is to share the ball, and get his teammates involved in transition or later in the shot clock. He has a fairly tight handle for his height and a very good first step. He’s pretty slight, but he’s long, and is able to bounce and slide back and forth in front of opposing lead guards and his bounciness can translate to being a good shot blocker for his position and size. Extremely active, the play is never truly over for him. Good looking jump shot form despite a limited sample size of three point shooting at Arkansas.
The Bad: Still a bit slight, and should he move away from being a point guard at the next level, he will definitely need to add size. Isn’t always the most efficient scorer, even if he has multiple ways of getting a basket. Low volume of threes so far may show hesitancy, which can lead to losing some of the muscle memory required to be a truly great shooter. If he’s not selected as a play initiator, there may be a question of what he can bring you on the offensive end when matched up against taller or more stout wings in the NBA. Shooting can be a bit streaky or rhythm based, as opposed to a reliable option for him game in and game out. Can almost be unselfish to a fault; so often looking for his teammates when he may even have a better look at the rim.
The Situation: As the Spurs enter their new era and build around the wing trio of Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, and Keldon Johnson, Black provides them with a selfless lead guard who's oversized and defensively-minded. An argument could be made for Kentucky's Cason Wallace at this spot, and that's likely a decision R.C. Buford and Co. will go back and forth between many times.
#6, Washington Wizards, Ausar Thompson, G/F, 2003, City Reapers, Overtime Elite (USA)
6’7”, 200lbs, NA wingspan (around 6’10”)
18.3ppg, 7.9rpg, 4.9apg, 2.8spg, 1.4bpg
Standout Game: 27 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 78.6% FG vs. YNG Dreamerz (OTE)
The Good: Twin brother of Amen, Thompson is another skywalking prospect who could leap further up draft boards by the end of the amateur season. More defensive minded than his brother, and more of a wing than a jumbo-sized PG has him slide down a bit, but he’s an elite athlete with athleticism almost worthy of a higher pick on its own. Will become an elite defender at the next level with his combination of guard-level quickness and the length and verticality to defend forwards and bigs. He’s wild in a similar fashion to his brother, but shows flashing of the same kind of playmaking as him as well. Is further along in the development of his jumpshot than Amen, both from mid-range and three-point. Further growth there should make him easier to call on earlier in his career from a shot-making perspective. Thus far for OTE, Ausar has improved his stock by making conscious efforts to improve the jump shooting, connecting on nearly 37% of his attempts thus far. Further improvements could propel him further up boards.
The Bad: As referenced, can similarly rely on his natural gifts and can fall into the habits of playing a bit out of control. Jump shooting is not great yet, even if it’s further along than his brother’s. And while he’s generally a plus defender, this can also be due in larger part to his athleticism and less due to his awareness. Sometimes he’ll catch his man sleeping and bail them out with a wildly exciting looking block, but just as easily he can be caught ball watching, looking to make the highlight play.
The Situation: In Washington's second unit, Thompson should have a chance to show his full skillset, on both sides of the ball. Depending on the development of players like Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert, he may be able to provide minutes in the starting rotation, where he'll have a chance to make an impact with his defense and athleticism, and potentially his shooting.
#7, Oklahoma City Thunder, Cam Whitmore, F, Freshman, Villanova
6’7”, 232lbs, NA wingspan
15.7ppg, 5.3apg, 50%FG, 35.3% 3FG
Standout Game: 21 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 54% FG vs. Penn
The Good: At this juncture of this particular draft, Whitmore is the only true plug-and-play wing option according to many, even if he’s continuing to rehab from thumb surgery and has only suited up three times for the Wildcats. Despite lacking a formal measurement (that I can find), he has long arms that pair with a powerful frame. He loves to leak out in transition and catch some easy bodies with serious dunks, and is totally comfortable with clearing out guys under the rim and snagging an offensive board and taking it all the way. While he’s not a great shooter, he’s very good at attacking closeouts and since he has the good fundamentals in place already, he could be a better three point shooter than currently expected. He took this to heart and made tremendous strides as a three point shooter from the Nike EYBL in ‘21 to the U18 Americas Championships the following summer. His first instinct when catching the ball on the wing is to go right at his defender at the rim, and his frame could present him as both a near-impossible guard as a small power forward, or a shooting guard who can turn his back to the basket and isolate against anyone he finds himself against.
The Bad: He doesn’t have the tightest handle, and this can sometimes result in turnovers that can (and maybe should) be fairly easily avoided. As was the case with Smith Jr., position versatility could land him in a sort of positional purgatory at the next level, if he doesn’t find himself in the right scenario. While his three point shooting projects to be good at the minimum, he lacks a bit of leverage on the lift off that you’d like to see from a “shorter” wing. Free throw percentage hasn’t been what you’d hoped it would be at this point, despite proven ability to shoot from other places on the floor. Not an elite defender, but his projected usage at the next level likely won’t demand him as such.
The Situation: As the Thunder continue to build out their "best roster available", Whitmore provides them with instant wing offense, something that roster desperately needs. Alongside several high-level playmakers, he should be able to slide in and put his three-level abilities to the test on day one.
#8, Orlando Magic (from Chicago Bulls), Brandon Miller, F, Freshman, Alabama
6’9”, 200lbs, 7’1”wingspan
18.4ppg, 8.4rpg, 2rpg, 43.7%3FG
Standout Game: 24 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks vs. Memphis
The Good: The prospect you think of when you imagine the modern, positionless forward who plays a little three, a little four, and is a capable defender. With high usage at Alabama, he’s gained a lot of comfort taking a handoff from his point guard and making offense happen in front of his face. While he’s still developing as a consistent shooter, he has the mechanics that will suggest it won’t be an issue, and his even just the visuals of his free throws should abate that worry. He poured in seven three pointers in a 28 point performance again an admittedly weaker Jacksonville State, but his willingness to shoot should be encouraging. The willingness to take these shots, and his perpetually increasing percentage should entice many a GM come June. Miller should step into a situation where some offense may be hemorrhaged a little bit and provide them with a long athlete who’s strong in the open floor and has strong shooting fundamentals. He should also give a rebuilding team a switchable defender with length, who can absolutely be asked to guard 3-5 directly, and smaller guards in sections. Has good verticality on shot blocking attempts, and good, if not great, help side instincts.
The Bad: Not an especially explosive athlete; has a bit of a hard time beating quicker wings off the dribble. Sometimes this can be in tandem with a bit of a loose handle, though he shows potential there as well. Was fairly absent, including 0 made field goals against then-number one Houston, but had a nice bounce back game immediately after. Has yet to develop as a truly elite shooter, but has improved his usage from deep range this season and will likely look to continue to do so throughout the year. Part of his issues with this have come in tandem with what he’s being asked to do for his team, and part of them come with struggling to find consistency. Sometimes he can appear a bit lost on defense not because he’s not sure what to do, but he’s not sure which of all the assignments is his, specifically. As is often the case, this will likely be developed with time, and given his frame and length, he could potentially be developed as more of a specialist, depending on the offensive needs of the team that selects him.
The Situation: After locking in their point guard of the future, the Magic continue to add massive size and wing scoring with Miller, who should split time with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero early on, before solidifying his role. He should seriously benefit from the playmaking and pace of Henderson, as well.
#9, New Orleans Pelicans (from Los Angeles Lakers), Keyonte George, G, Freshman, Baylor
6’4”, 185lbs, NA wingspan (++)
15.7ppg, 4.4rpg, 4.2apg, 39.8%FG
Standout Game: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals against Gonzaga
The Good: Highly touted prospect who’s a microwave scorer. Another guard who could likely split time between the point and shooting guard positions, depending on fit and need. As an offensive minded guard, he’ll likely slide in as a slightly undersized two. Good athlete with long arms and a good vertical. Plays with a tremendous amount of energy, and fires up his teammates alongside him. More of a strength bully than a lightning bug when it comes to beating his man off the dribble. Good shooter with mechanics and lift that should translate. Likes to shoot the transition three at a decently high clip, with results that match. Not the most natural playmaker, but makes the right decisions at the right moments in time to share the ball with his teammates. Has demonstrated many of these abilities so far in his freshman campaign with the Bears, taking the keys to the offense and putting up multiple double-digit performances against ranked opposition.
The Bad: A bit slow to be a point guard, a bit small to be a two, a key for George early on will be showing his value at different spots on the floor when called upon. He’s certainly not known as a defender at this point, but has a frame that could make him a decent one, with his plus wingspan. If he shows flashes of being able to hold the ball in a leading-man kind of way, he will likely increase his rookie usage by a significant amount, and if he does so over the rest of the year at Baylor, he could find his stock rising before June.
The Situation: New Orleans' selection of George allows them to move on from Devonte' Graham, which would free up further cap space to make a game-changing move in free agency or via trade, as he's slated to make around $12 million over the next two seasons. George should have a fairly constant green light on some of these bench units, and should his playmaking improve, he could get point guard minutes as well.
#10, Toronto Raptors, Cason Wallace, G, Freshman, Kentucky
6’4”, 195lbs, 6’7”wingspan
10.7ppg, 4.2rpg, 4.3apg, 2.4spg
Standout Game: 14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 8 steals vs. Michigan State
The Good: Wallace presents as another slightly oversized combo guard, with defensive instincts that are pro-looking already, with an eight steal performance at Michigan State included on his resume. He relishes the chances to jump in passing lanes or pick-pocketing unexpecting lead guards in transition, or fully at 94 feet. He seems to pride himself on his defense, and scouting departments certainly have an affinity for guys like that. His long arms let him slither in for rebounds, and he knows what he’s able to do in transition and often takes advantage right from a rebound. He seems equally comfortable at either guard slot, with a jump shot that seems to be something resembling ready, and the floor-spacing instincts to be in the right spot without the ball in his hands. When he’s initiating offense, he often will wait for the play to develop around him, then take advantage of his matchup and use his explosiveness to blow by. When he attacks his man/a closeout, he’s not married to putting the ball up on his own, and often will make a dump-off pass to his bigs when he rises up for a layup, and also shows good drive-and-kick accuracy and timing. The latest in a long history of Kentucky lead guards, it will be interesting to see how Wallace, if at all, develops like his predecessors once he gets to the league.
The Bad: Not truly physically intimidating, beyond his reach (which is still only about +3) as a point or shooting guard. Lacks a bit of definition as a guard in the NBA, so his potential could be very situationally dependent. Very well-rounded, which can lead to a bit of a “master of none” situation. In the wrong situation, he could languish a bit on the end of a bench and miss out on some valuable early run. He’s not a great free throw shooter at this point, and with the way that he plays, especially as that can occasionally go towards “wild”, it would be wise for him to develop that as an elite part of his game.
The Situation: As Fred VanVleet was an older prospect to begin with, the Raptors would be wise to think of who they want to have the keys to their offense as he winds in the direction of the back half of his career. Wallace fits the defensive, rugged style that's perpetuated by Scottie Barnes, O.G. Anunoby, and company, and his first couple years being spent learning from FVV would be invaluable time.
#11, Golden State Warriors, Jarace Walker, F, Freshman, Houston
6’8”, 240lbs, 7’2”wingspan
9.4ppg, 6.5rpg, 1.5apg, 1bpg, 1spg
Standout Game: 12 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 3 steals vs. North Florida
The Good: Walker has the most NBA-ready body in this year’s draft, and his wingspan allows him to play above his height in the frontcourt at the four spot. A bit of a funky looking shot release, but no real hesitancy when called upon to shoot from three. Enjoys facing up against his defender, and using his combination of strength and length to get to the basket. Has very good instincts on where to be on both sides of the ball, and his length allows him to be incredibly disruptive on the defensive side of the ball, both on the wing and in the paint. Will certainly gain minutes early in his career as a hustle guy, and a guy who knows where to be and when. Has a nice touch from the midrange, and should he hit those shots when called upon, and the free throws that come in tandem with being a player like him, he can be a nice two-way contributor early in his career.
The Bad: Not the quickest athlete in the draft, nor the most vertically gifted, but he's powerful. If he wants to be a true perimeter player as a pro, he will also need to further develop his handle. Mechanics for his shot are suspicious, but they’ve been good enough thus far to where it may not be the biggest issue going forward. If he develops his shot further throughout his campaign at Houston and into his rookie season, he has the chance to become a pretty helpful contributor early on. Even if he can step in and help many teams defensively, will likely never be a high-level shot creator at the pro level. Despite physical gifts, sometimes has lapses defensively that can leave his squad looking porous.
The Situation: Golden State is another team that finds themselves firmly looking forward, as their dynasty begins to appear over the hump, slowly but surely. The selection of Walker gives him a few years to learn positional versatility behind Draymond Green, one of the best ever, and will end with him as a high-value forward with the ability to guard 1-5.
#12, Utah Jazz (from Minnesota Timberwolves): Gradey Dick, F/G, Freshman, Kansas
6’8”, 195lbs, NA wingspan
15.4ppg, 4.4rpg, 1.9apg, 46.6% 3FG
Standout Game: 16 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 3PM vs. Missouri
The Good: Lights-out shooter who will be able to be plugged in and played for 10-13 points and has been better than expected so far at Kansas. Scoring bursts include a 25 point, 6 three-point outing vs. NC State. Probably the best shooter in the class when all ranges and scenarios are taken into account. Very good instincts when it comes to moving without the basketball, which is obviously extremely advantageous for a high-level three point shooter. Good team defender with a good understanding of schemes, and a player who takes a lot of pride in being a leader for his team, even if his offensive offerings may seem underwhelming. Decent straight line driver with a solid understanding of how to use his size to shoot and finish over defenders. High, quick jump shot release.
The Bad: Semi-limited offensively, lacks a bit of creativity off the dribble when making maneuvers towards the basket. Can get targeted individually by quicker offensive players. Not crazy explosive, which can lead to some of the offensive limitations, though his athleticism does exceed what many would expect of him. Decent, but not elite at playmaking or rebounding. Shell of what he could be is there already, but how much more of a ceiling does he have at those two things?
The Situation: With a "Gobert pick" that most probably wouldn't have guessed would fall in the lottery, Utah bolsters their bench scoring with a player who's showing to have more in his game than scouts initially thought. Alongside the continually ascending Lauri Markkanen and bigs like Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler, Dick should slide into some swingman minutes.
#13, Indiana Pacers, Gregory "G.G." Jackson, F, Freshman, South Carolina
6’9”, 215lbs, 6’10”wingspan
17.4ppg, 6.8rpg, 1.1bpg, 36.7% 3FG
Standout Game: 22 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists vs. Georgetown
The Good: A la Shaedon Sharpe, Jackson reclassified from the 2023 class, where he was the decided number one player, to 2022, making him one of the youngest prospects in this draft. Even with his age, he's turned heads throughout the season with his versatility. Early in his campaign at South Carolina, he’s shown flashes of being a high ceiling, versatile modern forward. He looks taller than 6’9”, and despite not having much of a true post game, he’s like some of these hybrid forwards we’re seeing more and more of, and has less trouble handling the ball outside the three point line, or shooting a fadeaway from the midpost. Smooth athlete, good at running the floor in transition and not looking super awkward while doing so. High energy, high motor four who wears his emotions on his face. Jump shot form suggests he’ll be a good shooter from three at the next level, and his hardly plus positive wingspan suggests similar.
The Bad: Likely won’t be a great shot blocker at any point due to his wingspan and lack of real vertical explosion. Slight frame could be detrimental, but shoulders suggest that he’ll fill out as he physically gets older and matures. Should be a solid defender of wings, but if he’s a weak post defender due to size or length, if lateral quickness doesn’t develop, he could get targeted. Assist to turnover ratio hasn’t been great up to this point, but likely won’t be called upon as a true playmaker for others at the next level.
The Situation: As Indiana continues to rebuild their identity around Tyrese Haliburton, and without certainty of what Myles Turner will be in that city, Jackson can slide in around Isaiah Jackson, as well as Jalen Smith to solidify that front court. With strong guard play from Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, Jackson should have a chance to take a lot of shots from the 3/4 spot.
#14, New York Knicks (from Dallas Mavericks), Kel’el Ware, C, Freshman, Oregon
7’0”, 225lbs, NA wingspan
9.0ppg, 5.2rpg, 1.6bpg, 48% FG
Standout Game: 17 points, 9 rebounds, 1 block vs. Michigan State
The Good: Ware’s combination of size and skill could propel him higher in the lottery by year’s end, depending both on his production at Oregon and which teams of which needs fall in the lottery. Had 18 points and 9 rebounds against a better UConn in a loss, showed flashes of rebounding ability and shooting touch both in the paint and out to three-point range. Shooting touch was also on display early against Montana State. Has no fear facing the basket on the catch, shooting will likely continue to improve at the professional level. Looks to have a plus wingspan and decent shot blocking instincts. Shooting comes in tandem with good free throw production (80% in U18 Americas Championship, 65.5% thus far at Oregon). Springy, good second jump that should translate to good offensive rebounding chances created, be they tap-outs or snagged by him. When his back is to the basket, he has a few moves he has no problem throwing at his defender, often ending with soft hooks or things similar, with good production. Worst case scenario is a solid rim runner with length.
The Bad: Frame immediately draws concern, weight is distributed enough that he appears to be pretty slight, fairly easily pushed around by heavier players. Shooting touch is good, but if he’s going to continue to be that kind of player in the NBA, it will likely need to improve still. In tandem with that, playmaking leaves some to be desired and if he’s going to be a pick-and-fade target, he will need to be able to attack a closeout with tighter dribble moves than have been on display thus far. Sometimes he looks as though he’s getting the numbers he’s getting are because of his athleticism, and less because he’s the hardest worker on the court. On defense, this can lead to mental lapses where he’s bailed out by his length or hops, and on offense it can just lead to poor post touches and not fully-realized possessions. If motor is improved, he could move up in the first round further into the lottery.
The Situation: Ware is the next best center available, and the Knicks likely won't sniff Wembanyama. With both Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle's futures in question, Tom Thibodeau would be wise to put a little more length alongside the many shot creators on the roster.
#15, Atlanta Hawks, Dariq Whitehead, G/F, Freshman, Duke
6’7”, 220lbs, 6’9”wingspan
6.7ppg, 2.3rpg, 0.9apg, 36.9% FG
Standout Game: 15 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block vs. Maryland Eastern Shore
The Good: Right off the bat, it’s worth noting that the 2021-22 Naismith Player of the Year has likely the most potential to rise up boards between now and next June. He’s been on a minutes restriction as he recovers from a foot surgery in late August, but he’s begun to work his way back into the lineup over the past couple weeks. Good vertical athlete at a legit 6’7”, and gets good elevation on his jump shot, even if his release is on the slow side and he kind of releases it on the way down. As a slasher, he’s incredibly smooth with his handle, and even in the wake of a foot surgery, expect his ability to get by defenders to remain. Very solidly built (brother is an NFL linebacker, football genes), absorbs contact well. Very aware defender who knows when to jump in passing lanes, and is not afraid to put himself on the floor for the sake of a loose ball. Should be able to slide in as a shot creator at the next level fairly comfortably, as he has no issue taking shots like a contested pull-up midrange offering, especially since he has the confidence to take and make them.
The Bad: Similarly to prospects like Villanova’s Whitmore, or Arkansas’ Smith Jr., there’s an element of having not seen Whitehead truly unleashed post-surgery that could affect his stock fairly drastically one way or another. Has yet to put up a stat-line that is truly eye-popping, especially given his recruitment status, and his averages reflect this as well. Has moments of efficiency that make you a bit nervous, especially as he can be such an overwhelming wing presence. Jump shot release is on the slow side, but should it speed up at the next level, it could become a real weapon when paired with the verticality. Sometimes struggles with shot selection, as many high-level, high-usage wing prospects do.
The Situation: Atlanta took one look at the production the got out of AJ Griffin and decide to take a swing on fellow highly recruited Blue Devil Whitehead. While he's yet to show out at the collegiate level, his scoring capabilities have been evident for years, so even if it takes a couple years to get him NBA-ready, it could pay huge dividends.
#16, Miami Heat, Terquavion Smith, G, Sophomore, North Carolina State
6’3”, 165lbs, 6’7”wingspan
18.3ppg, 3.8rpg, 5.5apg, 1.9spg
Standout Game: 33 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals vs. Coppin State
The Good: Super crafty multi-level scorer from the guard spot. Tight handle and strong displayed shooting ability. Despite being a second-year college player, he will still be on the younger side of all prospects by the time June comes. Long arms that he uses to his advantage on both ends of the floor, rising up for stop-and-pop jumpers in transition and using his instincts to read passing lanes. Shooting projects to continue at the next level. Enjoys going in towards the rim and finishing with tough layups and a solid floater package. Despite being a natural scorer, is willing to make plays for his teammates and has a good feel for timing. Averaged 16.3ppg a year ago for NC State, on 37% from three. Takes no issue with going in looking for contact despite his small frame. As a lower-ranked player in high school, Smith has been playing with a chip on his shoulder for a long time and will undoubtedly bring that.
The Bad: Will undoubtedly be one of the lightest players at the combine when the time comes, and this can translate to defensive issues as well as risk for potential injury. Often settles for poor shots in the paint, even if he completes a higher percentage of them than one would think. Best scoring performances thus far have been against significantly worse teams. Like a handful of others in this draft, will certainly bring questions of what position he will actually play at the next level. At 6’3”-6’4”, and especially with his weight, he’s undersized for an NBA two, even if his scoring ability would suggest that that’s where he fits best. If he doesn’t develop further playmaking abilities and cements himself as a one, his ceiling may only be that of a second-unit volume scorer for a team.
The Situation: Kyle Lowry is decidedly over the hill, and the Heat need to figure out how they want to define their team going forward. Smith's competitiveness and shot-making should stick out. While not a "true" point guard, he'll give them some shot creating help in the backcourt. His improvements from his first to second year at NC State may be cause for rise, but I believe the top half of the draft will be tremendously situational.
#17, Los Angeles Clippers, Baba Miller, F, Freshman, Florida State
6’11, 205lbs, 7’2” wingspan
Stats Incomplete
Standout Game: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 2 blocks vs. Alba Berlin U18
The Good: Undoubtedly the most unique prospect in the draft not named Victor Wembanyama, Miller is a 6’11” forward who’s yet to suit up for Florida State, and spent most of his developing years as a guard, and stood at just 6’2” at 14 years old. He’s yet to suit up for the Seminoles due to a travel suspension that many (this author included) feel is wholly unjust, and will play the back half of the season for them. Now loosely described as a “wing” at his nearly seven-foot stature, he brings a unique skillset to pair with his height. His vision is far-above average, and beyond his obvious physical gifts and IQ, he has a shooting stroke that could suggest a legitimate pick-and-fade option early on in his career. Some of the highest ceiling I’ve seen in quite some time, with legit guard skills translating to a seriously imposing frame. It will obviously be key to watch how he translates to the NCAA once his suspension is up, but the tools are there to entice any team looking to add a bit of size. Has no problems as an end-to-end athlete, which gives you hope, as tall, thin guys like this exist in the league now.
The Bad: I mean, we’ve yet to see Baba play a real game on American soil, which will be the first thing that gives coaches pause. You’re making your selection based on what he’s put on display thus far in his career. Not the most elite defender, but the instincts gained in his years at point guard make you think he could develop into a good, switchable wing/big defender who isn’t hopeless when switched on to smaller matchups. Miller is one of the more unique prospects for his size that we’ve seen in quite some time, and the biggest strengths (and weaknesses) when compared to his contemporaries will be on display in his first handful of games in ACC play.
The Situation: The Clippers may be more keen on a guard like NC State's Smith here, but as a seemingly limitless prospect with wing attacking potential at seven feet tall, Miller won't fall much further than this. On a team like this, he'll be able to get some legit run in the frontcourt, as well as pick up tips from guys like Kawhi Leonard, Nic Batum and Ivica Zubac.
#18, Utah Jazz, Kyle Filipowski, C, Freshman, Duke
7’0”, 230lbs, NA wingspan
14.8ppg, 9.2rpg, 1.3apg, 85% FT
Standout Game: 19 points, 15 rebounds, 8-9 FT vs. Oregon State
The Good: Filipowski’s play has outshined fellow super-freshmen Dereck Lively and Dariq Whitehead so far in Duke’s young season, with flashes of tremendous offensive skill at multiple places on the floor. Another in a loaded Blue Devil freshman class, with fellow first rounders like Whitehead and Lively, and other players who could easily get NBA contracts, like Jeremy Roach, Mark Mitchell, and Tyrese Proctor. What you get with Filipowski is a smooth scorer from multiple spots at a legit seven feet. Strong interior presence that translates to good rebounding skills, and he shows better playmaking skills at his size than one would guess. Nice touch around the rim with both hands, and a good free throw shooter. Better shooter from three point range in high school than he’s been so far at Duke, but his willingness to shoot and the flashes that have been shown definitely encourage promise.
The Bad: He’s not going to blow you away with his athleticism, nor is he so long that he can affect every defensive possession like you may hope other centers would, but has a solid understanding of concepts and his positioning within. Would be worth developing a stronger faceup game when he can’t create space with his size or shoot over his defender. Adding a couple strong moves with one or two dribbles could change the entire outlook of his offensive skill set, especially as he’s not going to ever be someone to dominate you with his sprinting or leaping. The lack of production as a jump shooter so far isn’t necessarily cause for concern, but should some of the trends like 1-6 3PM continue (in Duke’s loss early on to Kansas), he may be a more limited offensive player than we thought.
The Situation: While Utah doesn't lack size, they occasionally look like they could use a bit of scoring help. Kansas' Gradey Dick should help with this from the outside, and Filipowski's inside-out capabilities should make him a good fit to spell guys like Lauri Markkanen and Kelly Olynyk.
#19, New York Knicks, Kris Murray, F, Junior, Iowa
6’8”, 220lbs, 6’11”wingspan
19.4ppg, 10.1rpg, 1.8apg, 50% FG
Standout Game: 31 points, 20 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks vs. Georgia Tech
The Good: Twin brother of Sacramento Kings rookie Keegan, his brother’s success so far in his career may give teams a higher opinion of him. Being an older prospect means that he is likely fairly visible as what he will be at the next level. Poured in 30 points without free throws against Omaha, showing off three-level scoring. May not be the back to the basket scorer his brother is, but has more visible three-and-D readiness than Keegan. Being left-handed also creates a degree of difficulty for his defender, especially as he develops as a shot creator. Similar build to his brother, and has the ability to use his length to work over the top of his defender. Will be 23 on draft night, but this points more towards his direct readiness to play in Game One of ‘23-’24 . Would be a good target for a mid-first round team looking for bench help to deepen a playoff run.
The Bad: Lower ceiling than most prospects due to his age, and may be caught in a perpetual state of comparison to Keegan. Not an explosive vertical athlete some others at his position this draft, nor does he have elite lateral quickness; defensive strengths come largely from IQ, length, and switchability. Not elite at any one thing, and sometimes his shooting becomes streaky, which can be cause for concern. Not especially physically strong, getting to maybe 235 pounds would be a good idea if he’s to be a solid four or player in that dunker spot, and shedding to maybe 210 or 205 if he’s going to be cemented as a three.
The Situation: Cam Reddish's status continues to be up in the air, and many seem to think he'll be dealt before February's deadline. With Murray, they add more scoring and a bit of size, as well as a player who should take on a leadership role of some variety. His double digit rebounding numbers may not continue at the pro level, but having the opportunity should be tempting to a team that may lose some of that.
#20, Chicago Bulls (from Portland Trail Blazers), Jett Howard, G/F, Freshman, Michigan
6’8”, 215lbs, 6’9”wingspan
15.5ppg, 2.4rpg, 2.5apg, 40.3% 3FG
Standout Game: 16 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal vs. Kentucky
The Good: Great size for an offensive-minded wing. Natural scorer, but willing playmaker on a well-rounded Michigan team under father and NBA legend Juwan. Really good shooting stroke and good lift on the jump shot, and at his size, should continue to develop into a strong 3-and-D prospect, with a ceiling of strong shot creating abilities. Doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be successful, has a good feel for running around screens and getting himself open. Very good footwork when attacking closeouts, and can turn his back to his defender and throw a couple nifty moves at them on his way to the rim. Despite lacking elite foot speed, likes to push the tempo if he gets the ball in the backcourt, be it for himself or his teammates. Plus wing defender in one-on-one scenarios and has a good feel for schemes and how he fits within them at the wing spot. Could certainly become a mid-first round steal for the right team.
The Bad: Doesn’t have overwhelming length for his height, which could lead to mismatches at the next level and getting shot over by longer offensive players. Not a great athlete in a foot speed or leaping ability sense. Some look at these and his “good pace” as just being a bit slow and unathletic, despite pedigree and visible frame. Hasn’t shown to be a good rebounder at this point in his career, despite height. Has shown moments of having a pretty loose handle, but that should only be cause for concern if it continues at Michigan, and even then, he likely won’t be a primary play initiator.
The Situation: Howard is a scorer from the DeMar DeRozan school, and when both DeRozan and Zach Lavine are off the floor, the Bulls lack a bit of shot creating. Howard should be able to step in alongside guards like Coby White and Alex Caruso and find himself on the receiving ends of their playmaking.
#21, Sacramento Kings, Dereck Lively, C, Freshman, Duke
7’2”, 225lbs, 7’8”wingspan
4.4ppg, 3.7rpg, 2bpg, 60% FG
Standout Game: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks, 80%FG vs. Ohio State
The Good: Duke’s top recruit in one of their top classes in recent memory, the giant Lively brings the eye test every time, even if his play thus far at Duke has been less than stellar. Like his teammate Whitehead, he’s been battling injuries since before the season got underway, and has been on a similar minutes restriction. He’s a physical specimen, with long arms and huge hands to pair with his stature. When he’s playing, he’s an incredibly springy 7’2”, which makes him a defensive nightmare and dunking threat at every juncture. Smart player with pedigree (mother played at Penn State, overseas, and spent time coaching). Has improved his touch near the rim and away from it, stretching his range out to the three point line before departing high school. Should this continue, he could develop into an intriguing offensive talent that’s available in the mid-to-late first round.
The Bad: Has not been elite at Duke thus far, especially considering hype surrounding both him and his team heading into the NCAA season this year. When he’s played, it’s been sort of mediocre, with fairly weak scoring and rebounding numbers so far. Should be a better rebounder for his height and wingspan, largely due to his frame, which will need to solidify if he wants regular NBA minutes. Hasn’t shown the shooting touch at the collegiate level thus far that he displayed as a younger player. Sometimes gets picked on as a perimeter defender when called upon to switch, which makes you wonder what he will be relegated to as an NBA player.
The Situation: Despite lackluster numbers from Lively thus far, Sacramento needs to bolster their frontcourt as they move through this accelerated rebuild. Their rim protectors currently include the likes of Richaun Holmes, Alex Len, and Chimieze Metu, so if Lively shows rim running and defensive instincts early on, he could earn minutes on a team rapidly improving.
#22, Philadelphia 76ers, Maxwell Lewis, G, Sophomore, Pepperdine
6’7”, 190lbs, 7’2”wingspan
17.7ppg, 6rpg, 2.6apg, 45.7% 3FG
Standout Game: 29 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks vs. Rice
The Good: Another prototypical modern wing prospect, Lewis’ non-traditional path to the league will end this year, as he’s used an explosive start to the NCAA season to catch the attention of front offices leaguewide. Quick like a two, he can likely slide into either wing spot at the next level due to length and athleticism. Has the ability to turn his back to his defender and finish over the top with little jumpers or post moves. Good lift on his jump shot that negates low release. If he develops his strength, he could turn into a very solid 1-4 defender due to his wingspan. In playing at Pepperdine, often has the ball in his hands and an ultimate green light, but isn’t married to taking every attempt if his teammates have a better one. Length translates to deflections, will likely make early money in the NBA as a lane-jumper and highlight generator. With the right staff, he should develop into a strong shooter. Generally a good rebounder, largely due to his length.
The Bad: As can be the case with mid-major talent of this caliber, Lewis’ shot selection is the first thing many people point to as a question mark about his game. Because of some of the defensive schemes that he sees, he’s forced into taking bad shots and does so. Sometimes turns down better looks for tougher shots, which is causation for pause, even if the shots go down. Shot release is objectively low, and he can get streaky sometimes. His wingspan makes you think that a higher release is not only possible, but essential if he wants to develop into a lights-out shooter at the next level. Can turn the ball over a lot, assist to turnover ratio isn’t necessarily what you like to see, though he’s sharing the ball better thus far than he did as a freshman.
The Situation: Perhaps not the most picture-perfect fit when you look at the player/team comparison, Philadelphia would be wise to not let an offensive player of this caliber slide much past this slot. Off the bench, he should be able to put some of his length and athleticism to good use on both sides of the ball.
#23, Phoenix Suns, Dillon Mitchell, F, Freshman, Texas
6’8”, 205lbs, NA wingspan (around 7’1”)
8.2ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.1spg, 63.6% FG
Standout Game: 12 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals vs. Rice
The Good: One of the higher ceilings of any prospect this year, Mitchell provides a team with a legitimate super athlete with a decent-looking left handed shooting stroke and the potential to be an impactful defender Game One. Not a dissimilar prospect to Overtime Elite’s Thompson twins, Mitchell loves to use his length to disrupt passing lanes and finish with wild dunks on the other end. In similar fashion to the Thompsons, he’s not a shooting threat at this point in his career, but his free throw stroke and mechanics look workable at best, so it’s reasonable to think that he’ll develop into something serviceable. He’s good at finishing through contact and is a strong offensive rebounder for his height, so if he fills out his frame as he grows older, there’s a good chance he sees minutes as a small-ball four, especially as that position becomes more of a “dunker’s spot”. This also may be exacerbated by his lack of shooting so far, though developing that skill could make him one of the more versatile prospects in the whole draft, and send him up draft boards. Willing passer, though maybe not what many would consider to be a "natural playmaker".
Vocal leader who enjoys being “the guy” if called upon.
The Bad: As mentioned, the lack of shooting is certainly a point of concern at this point, but with his intangible gifts, may not be enough of a hindrance at the professional level. Obviously would change his value, but for a team in the mid-to-late first round, a mega athlete with a ceiling is the type of player you swing on. Due to his left-handedness, sometimes he can make himself only available on that side of the floor and can cut off his potential effectiveness. However, he moves well enough without the ball and likely won’t be a play initiator as a pro, so this may not be an issue. Could be a situation where a team takes a swing on an unrefined athlete and ends up with either a generational player due to ceiling, or a one-note leaper who will max out as a “Derrick Jones Jr.”
The Situation: In a previous draft, I had the Suns selecting Arkansas sophomore Trevon Brazile here, as I felt they need a bit more defensive juice and length to pair with their abundance of shot makers. Mitchell fulfills the same role (Brazile tore his ACL) and could easily develop into another Cameron Johnson-type player with the right coaching.
#24, Utah Jazz (from Brooklyn Nets and others), Terrence Shannon Jr., G/F, Senior, Illinois
6’6”, 215lbs, 6’8”wingspan
17.8ppg, 5.5rpg, 2.7apg, 45.5% FG
Standout Game: 29 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block vs. UCLA
The Good: Shannon is a player who’s turned the heads of scouts, fans, the media, and his contemporaries throughout his senior season at Illinois. After three campaigns at Texas Tech, Shannon took his scoring abilities to Illinois and has shined on a team currently ranked 16th in the country. A well-built, lefty wing, his versatility and shooting have been on display so far, to the tune of 18 points a game. There’s not one defining trait that makes you salivate over him, but rather his strong abilities at both measurable and non-measurable things. Beyond his stats, including 36% from three, he’s shown the ability to be a very good cutter, off-ball defender, and hustle guy who has no problem putting his body in harm’s way for the sake of the win. Since he’s been to the NBA Draft Combine before, many teams know what they’re getting with Shannon from a physical standpoint, so he’s been able to tune up and refine his offensive game and make himself a more appealing all-around prospect.
The Bad: The first thing to point to with Shannon is his age, as he’ll be one of the oldest prospects registered in the draft. Similarly to some of his peers in this draft, he doesn’t have one element that he excels at more than others, and once you start getting into the later parts of the first round, teams start looking for more pieces that can help them in specific ways. Between his shooting and finishing, there are flashes of what could emerge as a niche. Three point efficiency maybe isn’t what you’d want at this point in his career, but he’s taking six a game, showing his willingness to make himself available. Not a natural playmaker. Should a team that needs a bit of “microwave” offense off the bench find themselves in a position to do so, they’d be wise to select him.
The Situation: Rounding out the Jazz' trio of first round picks is Shannon. After bolstering their front court and using their first selection on a lights-out shooter, Utah is entranced by Shannon's scoring abilities and maturity, and his ability to help them right now.
#25, Charlotte Hornets (from Denver Nuggets and others), Coleman Hawkins, F/C, Junior, Illinois
6’10”, 225lbs, 7’1”wingspan
9.5ppg, 6.1rpg, 4.2apg, 1.2spg, 1.5bpg
Standout Game: 15 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 1 steal vs. Syracuse
The Good: Older prospect rising up boards despite age, due to increased offensive production, especially as a jump shooter. Recently displayed his full skillset against Syracuse, posting a 15/10/10 triple double. Lanky frame and surprisingly quick first step could make for a tricky offensive cover if he improves his handle. Better shooter than one would guess, with nice form and elevation off the catch. Extremely willing passer with good version, both in a high-post setting or off the bounce. Good instincts when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, knows how to relocate for a better shot or to make himself available for a pass. Doesn’t dally with the ball in his hands, looks to either make a play for himself or others immediately. Smooth, fluid athlete, appears to be pretty comfortable in his own body. Nice feel for defensive rotations and where he has to be in relation to the driving offensive player. Averaging 1.2 steals and 1.5 blocks so far this season. Larger role offensively this season for Illinois will likely lead to production numbers that will bump him into the first round.
The Bad: Junior in college who’s yet to string together a real stretch of dominant offensive performances and has had stats that haven’t blown anyone away thus far in his career at Illinois. Increased usage this year has translated to increased turnover numbers, which is exacerbated by his still-developing handle. Still kind of slight, could get pushed around on the block if put in a traditional big role, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Wingspan of only +3, you’d like to see that a little longer, with the shot blocking numbers to match. Situationally cornered a little bit, unknown ceiling with his age. May age out of being a big-time offensive player on the wrong roster, and with limited defensive measurables, fit could be unknown as a professional.
The Situation: After locking down some shot creation to pair with LaMelo early in round one, the Hornets add a bit of size and another unique offensive talent in Hawkins. Alongside the ascending Nick Richards and Kai Jones, Hawkins should have a chance to play free-throw-line extended and make plays for both himself and others.
#26, Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland Cavaliers), Rayan Rupert, G/F, 2004, New Zealand Breakers (NBL)
6’6”, 195lbs, 7’3” wingspan
6.2ppg, 2.3rpg, 1.2apg, 34% FG
Standout Game: 11 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist vs. Illawara Hawks
The Good: The first thing you notice with French prospect Rupert is the unreal length for a wing player. His +9 wingspan is borderline unheard of, especially as a non-center. This will translate to defensive effectiveness at the next level, and should cement him as a first round pick. Isn’t hindered by his insane wingspan when it comes to shooting the ball, as he’s willing to take and make threes at whatever clip is called upon. Isn’t the most efficient offensive talent, but just like his NBL predecessor Ousmane Dieng, this likely will not affect his stock when it comes to draft time. The length and athleticism, as well as his youth and the upside that comes with a prospect like this will sell teams at the end of the day. Good feel for where to be without the ball, likely due to his international play. Developing as a playmaker in the pick-and-roll, which would be an elite addition to his game, especially considering his wingspan. Year one, he will be able to step in as a disruptive wing defender with a developing jump shot that has a very good framework.
The Bad: He’s pretty raw, and doesn’t always have the best feel for what’s the right shot in a halfcourt set. Dips the ball pretty low to start his jump shot, and for it to be truly effective at the next level, he’s going to have to speed up the entire process, especially as he’ll be called upon to catch and shoot early on much more than he will to create his own shot. For his length, he’s not a great rebounder, and should develop into one if he wants to be a successful two-way wing, especially considering his monster wingspan. Should further develop as a playmaker from that slot as well. Can be slightly undisciplined on defense; often can get bailed out by his length and athleticism.
The Situation: Rupert is a player many scouts have floating around this range, and has the potential to have quite a bit of motion between now and June. Indiana adds him to their flurry of perimeter talent, and his defensive potential under Rick Carlisle will surely be highlighted.
#27, Los Angeles Lakers (from New Orleans Pelicans), J.J. Starling, G, Freshman, Notre Dame
6’4”, 200lbs, 6’9”wingspan
12.6ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.1apg, 0.9spg
Standout Game: 23 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block vs. Bowling Green
The Good: What you get with Starling is obvious, a multi-level scorer from either guard slot. He’s been compared to his Irish predecessor of last year, Blake Wesley, who was drafted by the Spurs at 25th overall last June. He’s an elite shooter, has no issue getting to his spots, and plays bigger than his listed 6’4”. He shows flashes of being a strong playmaker on occasion, but as has been the case with many other players in this draft, Starling does find himself with a bit of a positional question as an NBA player. Nice tight handle and good elevation on his jumper, allows him to work into tight spaces and get his shot off over a lot of different defenders and schemes. Good rebounder for his size, and likes to push the pace both on his own and with his teammates.
The Bad: As mentioned, there’s a question about what position Starling will play at the next level, but scorers always find a way to score, and we’ve seen plenty of undersized combo guards picked at slots like this who develop into plug and play scorers on NBA rosters. He’s not as good of a defender as you’d hope, especially considering the +5 wingspan, nor is he an overwhelming athlete, but the tools are in place to where he could certainly develop into one. If his playmaking and defense develop, and he cements himself as the Fighting Irish’s lead guard and their number one option, he should be a lock for the first round.
The Situation: The Lakers perhaps wish they had their own pick, but with the stellar play of Anthony Davis as of late, they look to Starling to solidify their backcourt of the future. With the ability to play at either guard slot, he should find himself with plenty of shot opportunities and a chance to be a leader.
#28, Memphis Grizzlies, Julian Phillips, F, Freshman, Tennessee
6’8”, 200lbs, 6’11.5”wingspan
10.7ppg, 5.6rpg, 1.9apg, 0.9spg
Standout Game: 25 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block vs. USC
The Good: Phillips chose to go the NCAA route after public, large offers from both the G League Ignite and Overtime Elite clubs after leading Link Academy (MO) to a 33-2 record. Since arriving at Tennessee, he’s cemented himself as one of the better two-way prospects available in the draft, and rocketed up boards. Good feel for moving without the basketball, especially for his age. Makes himself available in the paint for finishes/free throw attempts. 80% from the line so far this season. Length makes him a very good defender of both wings and slighter bigs. His floor as an athletic star in the “dunker spot” is very appealing, especially with the flashes of his jump shooting ability that he’s shown thus far as a Volunteer. Seems to thrive on contact, which coaches tend to like quite a bit. After not being expected to be a first-round talent early in the year, Phillips looks to be a near sure-thing by Christmas.
The Bad: Three-point numbers certainly don’t jump off the page at you, as he’s only converted 19% of his attempts so far, but this is paired with less than two attempts, making you think he may not be shooting them as a result of the schemes that he finds himself in. He’s also not really shown himself to be an elite shot creator at this point. Good athlete, but not the skywalker that some of the others at his position might be. Alongside his three point percentage, his general FG% of 33% makes you raise an eyebrow, but as his role changes as a pro, the types of shots he’ll take will change, too.
The Situation: The ready-made athleticism and shooting potential of Phillips prove to be too much for the Grizzlies, who are enthralled by his length and defensive instincts as well. The argument could be made that someone who's more of a pro-ready shooter would be the wiser selection, but the Grizzlies are in a good enough place now to where they can select a prospect like this.
#29, Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee Bucks), Jalen Wilson, F, Junior, Kansas
6’8”, 225lbs, 6’8” wingspan
21ppg, 9.3rpg, 3apg, 35% 3FG
Standout Game: 25 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block vs. Duke
The Good: The primary offensive talent on the defending national champions, Wilson has come out firing this season, setting a career high with 33 points against Southern Utah, and 25 points and 11 rebounds against a long Duke frontcourt. Not unlike his former running mate and 2022 lottery pick, Ochai Agbaji, Wilson likes to go at his defender from multiple levels, using his frame to muscle into the paint, or use a soft touch to shoot over a smaller defender. Big wing with a good motor, good rebounder with no problem finishing above the rim. As an older prospect, his fairly defined position makes him a visible plug-and-play option for a team who could use some wing bolstering. Pretty good ball handler with a knack for making plays for others, too. When his jump shots are falling, he’s as good of a shooter as there is in college basketball, and him and teammate Gradey Dick make for a pretty lethal wing combo in Lawrence.
The Bad: Not unlike other older prospects, the question of the team on which Wilson finds himself could have a lot to do with his early-career production. Handle isn’t elite, despite above-average playmaking skills. Sometimes can get baited into wild play and turn the ball over. Good shooter, but can be streaky and can try to shoot his way out of slumps, sometimes to no avail. Suffered an ankle injury that kept him sidelined for an extended period of time, and without elite lateral quickness anyway, the question of how he’ll stay in front of elite perimeter offensive players as a pro is worth asking. Despite being a good shooter, with flashes of abilities beyond that, his free throw percentage is less than what you’d hope. His best full season mark came last year, at 72.2%, though he is currently on pace to usurp that.
The Situation: After taking Amen Thompson to have as the point guard next to Jalen Green, and cementing the Rockets as one of the most exciting teams to watch in the entire league, Wilson slides in as a valuable wing scorer with winning experience and the potential to make an impact right away.
#30, Indiana Pacers (via Boston Celtics), Leonard Miller, F, 2003, G League Ignite (USA)
6’10”, 210lbs, 7’2” wingspan
15.9ppg, 8.3rpg, 1.8apg, 52.9% FG
Standout Game: 25 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block vs. Stockton Kings
The Good: Long, super raw Canadian prospect with a ton of youth and moldability. Garnered interest as an even more raw prospect last year leading up to the ‘22 draft, Miller chose to default and spend a year in the Ignite system, which is sure to benefit him further as the year continues to go by. Has the ability to be a unique offensive talent with some mechanical tweaks. A lefty inclined to play more near the perimeter, even with his measurables, he’s had flashes of playmaking ability and shooting that give you hope. Poured in 16 points and nine rebounds against Webanyama’s Metropolitans 92. Has the confidence to get a rebound and press the ball ahead in transition, and once he improves his ball-handling, he could develop into a rare transition threat. Defensively, his wingspan and wide shoulders make him appear bigger than his listed 6’10”, 210. Shows flashes of shot creation that can be eye-opening, even if they’re a bit more “few and far between”. Length, upside, and potential will sell an improving team on Miller’s services.
The Bad: Super raw, just as high of a chance of him bottoming out as becoming a late-first round steal. Very unclear what he will be at the next level, whether that’s a stretch five or a bruising small forward. Jump shot mechanics leave a tremendous amount to be desired, but he has no hesitation in shooting them. In the right setup, he could be trained into a passable pick-and-fade threat, but at this point he doesn’t look like one. Not a great ball-handler, but again, has the willingness to take the ball off the rim and take it end-to-end. Still an element of learning the game that’s evident when you watch him play. Even if he doesn’t become a jump shooter at the next level, he’s going to need to improve his free throw shooting to earn minutes as a professional.
The Situation: As Indiana outperforms expectations, they use the Celtics' pick to further bolster their frontcourt. While neither him nor lotto pick GG Jackson are known as stoppers, the length that Miller provides should quell worries about the defensive abilities of guys like Terry Taylor, Isaiah Jackson, or Goga Bitadze in the second unit.
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