So if you read my mock draft, you'll know that myself (and to be fair, a lot of other people) had a lot wrong about the first round of the NBA Draft. Until that morning, pretty much no one outside of Orlando expected Duke's Paolo Banchero to go #1. Sacramento ignored any and all trade offers (and some sense) and let Jaden Ivey fall to the blossoming Pistons at five, and guys like Santa Clara's Jalen Williams and Baylor's Jeremy Sochan both usurped their expected positions.
Now that all the trades (what, New York Knicks?) and everything have settled out, I think it makes sense for us to take a short look back at ten notable first round picks and rank them based on their fit within their team. The list will start at ten and go to one, from "worst" to "best".
#10: Marjon Beauchamp, F/G, Milwaukee Bucks (USA/G League Ignite)
Draft Selection: 24th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Rotational/Second Unit
Beauchamp is a project, there's no doubt, but he also showed enough promise during his lone season with the Ignite for the Bucks to take him at the 24th overall pick. He provides defensive versatility with great measurables (6'6.5", 195, 7'1"wing). His transition instincts will pair well with a player like Giannis, and he has a grind-it-out mentality that Budenholzer and Co. will absolutely love. He could earn regular minutes with the perennial contenders by showing off his cutting instincts in the half court and providing tremendous energy as a lob threat and defensive monster for opposing wings.
#9: Jeremy Sochan, F, San Antonio Spurs (Baylor)
Draft Selection: 9th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Second Unit/Eventual Starter(?)
Sochan emerged as the best defender on one of the best teams in college basketball over his career at Baylor, and his length and frame (6'9", 230, 7'0"wing) eventually cemented him in many people's eyes as the best defender in this draft class. In "best" likely comes with his versatility, as he can guard one through five as a leaper and with great lateral quickness. In the rotation with guys like Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Keita Bates-Diop, and Zach Collins, if Sochan shows flashes of the jump shot he occasionally displayed, he could accelerate this new era of grimy, defensive Spurs basketball.
#8: Ochai Agbaji, F/G, Cleveland Cavaliers (Kansas)
Draft Selection: 14th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Second Unit/Eventual Starter
With maturity that exceeds many in this class, Agbaji slides in very nicely in Cleveland, a place many had suggested could and should draft the Kansas champion. The matter of where exactly, in year one, is what prevents him from showing up later on this list. Built like what would now be considered a "big" shooting guard (6'6", 220, 6'10"wing), Cleveland should be sure not to under utilize his offensive skillset and defensive readiness. Collin Sexton is a restricted free agent, and Isaac Okoro is fairly established as the starting small forward for the Cavs now, so how many minutes Agbaji gets could depend on Sexton's place on the team. He's a knockdown shooter who can also make himself available as a vertical threat, and his frame and play at Kansas could allow him and Okoro to create absolute hell on Earth for Central Division wings.
#7: Mark Williams, C, Charlotte Hornets (Duke)
Draft Selection: 15th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Second Unit
The Hornets currently employ one of the strangest amalgamations of frontcourt players in the entire league, but none of them provide the sheer size and presence that Duke's Williams does. Another player picked in a spot some predicted, his 7'0", 250lb, 7'7"wing frame certainly stands out among P.J. Washington, Mason Plumlee, and Montrezl Harrell. He's no revolutionary player, or at least does not appear to be, but he provides franchise centerpiece Lamelo Ball another elite lob threat on the offensive side of the ball, and he has a soft enough touch to draw some attention not DIRECTLY under the rim in a pick-and-roll situation. Should the Hornets choose to shed the contracts of either Plumlee or Harrell at the end of next season, Williams' improvements could make him have a greater impact almost immediately, at a much younger age and much cheaper price tag than, may I remind you, Mason Plumlee.
#6: Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, Golden State Warriors (UW-Milwaukee)
Draft Selection: 28th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Rotational/Second Unit
It's tempting to look at Baldwin's campaign at Milwaukee for his father as purely underwhelming, and point to numbers like barely 42% on twos and under 30% on threes as reasons that he should have made the first round, if at all. But it's also just as tempting to look at him for both what he was before a slew of injuries only provided him with eleven total games played in college, and look at the combination of size (6'9", 230, 7'1"wing) and skill as both a primary ballhandler in both a pick-and-roll situation, and playing off the ball as a shooter. His form is near-unblockable, and within the Golden State organization, there's little doubt in my mind that with the right combination of conditioning and role "cementing", he could develop into another one of those "how did they get away with that AGAIN" moves for the defending champs.
#5: Paolo Banchero, F, Orlando Magic (Duke)
Draft Selection: 1st Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Starter
The impetus of this entire list, I realized that even in how much I love Banchero as a prospect, as a lethal 6'10", 250 with all the offensive skill in the world, there was something I didn't love about his fit on the Magic, specifically. Now sure, you could make the argument that any of the top three picks would have all found themselves in funky situations in central Florida, and whoever got picked at that slot, as a "big", would have been fighting an uphill battle, and it's just Banchero's draw. Amidst Franz Wagner, Terrence Ross, Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba, and whatever's left of Jonathan Isaac, there's a bit of "this is my ball when it's out of Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs' hands" attitude he'll have to take, but with all the previously mentioned players, and no one tied down to absolutely offensive contracts, you have to like what Orlando's building at least a little bit.
#4: Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons (Memphis)
Draft Selection: 13th Overall (CHA, traded to DET as a part of a three-team deal)
Projected Role in '22/23: Second Unit/Eventual Starter
So let's quickly go through what happened to land Memphis' Duren in Detroit for next to nothing. The Hornets received a flurry of future picks to send the rights to Duren to the Knicks (who should've picked him at eleven), who then immediately flipped both Duren and Kemba Walker to the Pistons for a pair of lottery-protected first rounders (what in the world are the Knicks doing). The Pistons were able to get both Duren and a player to be named later (spoilers) while only making one pick. And from what I'm able to find, it appears the Knicks are the ones who will be partaking in Walker's buyout (what in the world are the Knicks DOING). With Duren, the Pistons get a player who could play behind Isaiah Stewart or in place of him further down the road, with a monstrous 7'5" wingspan to go with his 6'11", 250 pound frame. With his size eclipsing that of Stewart's, and in having a bit more of a shooting touch, if the NBA game begins to come easy to Duren at any point year one, he could overtake both Stewart and Kelly Olynyk in primary center minutes.
#3: Jaden Ivey, G, Detroit Pistons (Purdue)
Draft Selection: 5th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Starter
The Pistons were undoubtedly stoked Ivey fell to them at the fifth slot, after Sacramento decided to turn their phones on Do Not Disturb on draft night and selected Iowa's Keegan Murray. That fall was also likely what spurred them to get aggressive and get Duren, effectively getting two lottery picks for the price of two-lottery protected future picks (god the Knicks are funny). Ivey is a potentially perfect match alongside Cade Cunningham, even if some people thought Murray could be an equally fine pick here. He plays at such a lightning pace and with such athleticism, to match new backcourt mate Cunningham's patience and pace. He's comfortable in both a playmaking role and as an off-ball scorer, which allows Cunningham to improve both sides of that part of his game as well. His length despite overwhelming size (a 6'10" wingspan to go with a 6'4", 195lb frame) suggests he could become a great wing defender on opposing ones or twos. Really the last two picks were about applauding Troy Weaver and Co. for what they're putting together in the Motor City, and there's little doubt in my mind that they are going to be one of the "League Pass" teams of the year. (Shoutout Simmons)
#2: Jabari Smith Jr., F, Houston Rockets (Auburn)
Draft Selection: 3rd Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Starter
A player many had penciled in as the number one draft pick until a few hours before, Smith finds himself in arguably the most exciting situation of the top three selections, which is also a spot Banchero could (and most thought would) have been in. He provides an excellent to last year's number two pick, Jalen Green, and brings a defensive energy and presence (6'10", 220, 7'1"wing) that Houston desperately needs. Him and Green will be must-see TV next year, and even if the Rockets are towards the bottom of the West again, and find themselves in the lottery, they're now looking for complementary pieces around two potential all-NBA players and perennial All-Stars. His shooting will translate well, especially at his size, and it's worth mentioning that the Rockets ending up with LSU's Tari Eason at number seventeen gives them even more length and shooting on the wing, which is arguably what Houston needs most. I'm not saying it's illegal to trot out a 33-year-old Eric Gordon as one of your small forwards, but wouldn't it be nice to not have to do that?
Obligatory Chet Holmgren Moment
So Chet is not the number one player on this list, making him a complete absence entirely. This is through no fault of his own, but rather the same thought process that landed Paolo Banchero at the five spot, despite being the first overall pick going into a situation where he could get all the touches. We haven't a clue what Oklahoma City is doing with their roster yet, and Chet is one of the most mysterious players we've ever seen come out of the draft, so it didn't feel right to make projections about what either of those will look like next season.
And #1:
Dyson Daniels, G, New Orleans Pelicans (Australia/G League Ignite)
Draft Selection: 8th Overall
Projected Role in '22/23: Second Unit/POSSIBLE starter
Right away, clarifying "possible" vs. "eventual" starter. Guys like Duren, Agbaji, and Sochan all have parts of their game that need to be further established before they could step into starting roles on their teams. It's a bit different for Australia's Daniels, who's a jumbo-sized lead guard, at like 6'8" in shoes, with a 6'11" wingspan and a solid 195lb frame. He'll look to fill the role that Lonzo Ball left in the wake of that trade, and could likely do so immediately. Some point to below-average three point shooting as a weakness, but with his size and skill, as well as his playmaking (his preferred gig on offense), and his immediate defensive impact would be felt as a "point guard". He loves to rebound and pickup the opposing team's lead guard, making him a treat for the way they run things in New Orleans. It's also worth noting, for people with a lot of things to say about Daniels as a shooter, that he'll be under the tutelage of Fred Vinson, who helped fix both Ball and Ingram's jumpers. The Pels usually run some combination of Jose Alvarado and C.J. McCollum at the one, and there will likely be the return of some point Zion this year, but should they choose to have a more solidified rotation, Daniels/McCollum/Ingram/Williamson/Valanciunas spelled by Alvarado/Graham/Jones/Murphy III/Hayes is one of both the most exciting young teams in the NBA and also a legit contender in the West, barring health.
Comments